A newly released working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas concludes that the recent increase in unauthorized immigrant workers coincided with higher home prices and rental costs across U.S. metropolitan areas, prompting reactions from Trump administration officials and renewed discussion about the impact of immigration on the nation’s housing market, as reported by KRCR [1].
The preliminary research examined housing and labor market data during the period from 2021 through 2024, which the paper describes as an “unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration.”
According to the economists who authored the paper, unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for approximately 30% of employment growth, about 30% of home price growth, and roughly 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area included in the analysis.
The paper focuses on the relationship between unauthorized immigrant worker flows and housing demand while analyzing trends in metro areas throughout the country.
The authors also cautioned that the document is a preliminary draft and does not represent the official views of either the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Former acting ICE Director Jonathan Fahey said the findings reflected what many Americans had already experienced in the housing market.
“Because we know the rents and home prices went up because of illegal immigration, and that’s really just common sense. You bring in over ten million people, they didn’t bring any homes with them, prices are going to rise,” Fahey told Fox Business.
The working paper quickly drew attention from officials in the Trump administration after its publication.
According to the report, President Donald Trump shared the study, as did White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Bill Pulte, Director of Federal Housing and acting Director of National Intelligence.
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner also commented on the report, arguing that increased competition for housing contributed to higher prices.
“For years, hardworking Americans had to compete with millions of illegal aliens for housing. Of course, that raised prices,” Turner wrote in part.
The release of the Federal Reserve working paper follows HUD’s December report titled “Worst Case Housing Needs 2025.”
According to that report, the foreign-born population of the United States increased by more than six million people during the same period, which HUD described as the largest increase over that timeframe in U.S. history.
Turner also pointed to housing conditions in states including New York and California while discussing the earlier HUD findings.
“There’s no coincidence when you have unfettered access for illegals to come into your city, to come into your state, that you’re going to have these problems with illegal immigration. 100% of the use of rental growth in New York and California is due to illegal aliens coming into our country,” Turner told Fox Business in December after the report was released.
The Federal Reserve paper examined how unauthorized immigrant worker flows may have affected both labor markets and housing markets during the study period.
Researchers estimated that the impact extended beyond employment to measurable increases in both home values and rental prices across metropolitan areas.
Although the paper has generated significant public discussion, the authors emphasized that it remains a working paper subject to further review.
They specifically noted that the analysis is preliminary and should not be interpreted as an official policy position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
The report has become part of the broader national debate over housing affordability, immigration policy, and the factors contributing to rising home prices and rents in communities across the United States.