Lionel Messi scored his fifth goal of the tournament as Argentina defeated Austria 2-0. The goal broke Miroslav Klose’s record for most goals in World Cup history. When asked which goal was his favorite, Messi said, “Honestly, I don’t remember. I’m tired.”
The 2026 World Cup has reached 48 completed games, with 24 remaining before the knockout rounds begin. After two matches for all teams, patterns of success and disappointment have started to emerge.
Mauricio Pochettino and his team are described as the biggest winners after two rounds. They have won both matches and improved their chances of future wins more than any other side, based on projections from analyst Michael Caley.
According to Caley’s model, the U.S. men’s national team began the tournament with a 53% chance of reaching the round of 16, which has risen to 84%. Their likely opponent in the round of 32 is Bosnia-Herzegovina, followed by Qatar. A quarterfinal appearance now has a 53% likelihood, with possible opponents Belgium or Egypt.
Caley’s model also projects a 19% chance for the U.S. to reach the semifinals, up from 8%, and a 2.5% chance to win the tournament, which is nearly triple their pre-tournament estimate. The Americans have been described as deserved winners so far.
The U.S. has made more defensive actions in the attacking third than any team except Spain, with Tyler Adams and Malik Tillman ranking second and third individually. Both of their early goals came after opposing players scored own goals. Turkiye, their strongest group opponent, has been eliminated after failing to score.
Christian Pulisic is injured, but with the group already clinched after two matches, he is expected to have 2½ weeks of rest. Even without him, the Americans are favored in their next match against an opponent weaker than Paraguay or Australia.
Messi remains central to Argentina’s story. Over 876 competitive matches, he has attempted 4,116 shots and scored 751 goals, an 18.2% conversion rate. He has taken 117 penalties and converted 94, or 80.3%. Despite fatigue, he leads the World Cup in goals at age 39.
Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe have each scored four goals, trailing only Messi. According to Futi, only Messi has generated more expected goals than Haaland, and only Messi has attempted more shots than Mbappe. Their next meeting will decide first place in Group I.
Turkiye has disappointed by creating 3.53 expected goals without scoring and conceding three from 1.50 expected. They have taken 62 shots, most in the tournament, but 40 had xG values of 0.05 or lower. Kenan Yildiz, Hakan Çalhanoglu, and Arda Güler combined for 34 shots, with only two higher than 0.06 xG.
Canada’s 6-0 win over Qatar featured 97 touches inside the penalty area, the most recorded in any World Cup game since the 32-team format, surpassing the next highest total by 26. They allowed only a single opposition touch. Qatar’s performance has been characterized as among the worst seen at a World Cup.
Mexico, under Javier Aguirre, have maintained efficiency by doubling their opponents’ expected goals, shots, and penalty area touches through two games. With first place secured, they are projected to meet England in a potential round-of-16 match.
Both Netherlands manager Ronald Koeman and Brazil manager Carlo Ancelotti made tactical adjustments after disappointing openers. Koeman moved Donyell Malen back to the wing and started Brian Brobbey, who scored twice in a 5-1 win over Sweden. Ancelotti replaced Igor Thiago with Matheus Cunha, who also scored twice as Brazil won and gained midfield control.
Ecuador has created 3.85 expected goals from 39 attempts but scored none. After hitting the woodwork multiple times, their qualification chances dropped from 95% to 29% before facing Germany. Germany manager Julian Nagelsmann substituted Deniz Undav for Jamal Musiala, leading to two goals and a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast.
Belgium and Uruguay remain winless despite facing Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Cape Verde. Caley projected their championship chances at 3% and 2.2% before the tournament, now down to 1.7% and 0.7%.
Spain’s 18-year-old winger Lamine Yamal has defined their success. Without him, Spain drew scoreless; with him starting, they led 3-0 within 25 minutes. They have conceded 0.35 expected goals through two matches, the best in the field.
Portugal responded to early criticism with a 5-0 win against Uzbekistan. Roberto Martinez remains committed to starting Cristiano Ronaldo. The performance indicated improvement and highlighted Aston Villa’s Austin MacPhee’s set-piece influence. Uzbekistan managed only 11 touches inside the opposition penalty area in two matches.
England’s match against Ghana ended poorly despite 87% possession and a 19-2 shot advantage. They produced 1.28 expected goals, largely from a deflection to Harry Kane, who missed. Ghana created five dangerous attacks and are expected to advance. England’s creative midfield limitations were again evident, raising questions about lineup options such as Trent Alexander-Arnold.
England still holds control of their group, with a draw against Panama possibly enough to advance. However, their struggle to unlock Ghana’s compact defense has prompted concerns about how they might respond if trailing deeper in the tournament.