NewsNation political contributor Chris Cillizza cautioned Thursday that if Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett runs for U.S. Senate in 2026, it could significantly increase Republicans’ chances of keeping the seat.

During a segment on his YouTube channel, Cillizza analyzed Crockett’s comments from her appearance a day earlier on SiriusXM’s “The Lurie Daniel Favors Show,” where she said she is considering launching a campaign for the Senate.

“The problem is it’s very difficult for me to see how Crockett would reach out to the middle, particularly in a state like Texas where there just are not enough Democrats.

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Even if you get all the Democrats to vote for you, you don’t win,” Cillizza said.

“So I think this would be a dream scenario for Republicans. Because I think Ken Paxton has a real chance at winning the primary against John Cornyn and Wesley Hunt. And if he does, the best chance Republicans have of keeping that seat is Jasmine Crockett as the Democratic nominee.”

Cillizza continued by suggesting that other Democratic contenders would be more competitive in a statewide general election.

“To me, there’s no question that either Colin Allred or James Talarico, or honestly maybe even Beto O’Rourke, would be a stronger general election candidate against Paxton or Cornyn or Hunt than Jasmine Crockett,” he said.

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He also speculated that Crockett might ultimately decide not to run, saying that her public consideration of a campaign could serve as a fundraising strategy.

“But the possibility will make Democrats nationally nervous,” Cillizza said.

“I do not think that is the right nominee. And what’s worse for national Democrats, I think it’s very hard to stop Jasmine Crockett [from] winning the Democratic nomination if she does run for the Senate.”

Crockett, however, expressed confidence in her chances during her SiriusXM interview, citing internal and public polling showing her ahead of other potential Democratic candidates.

She currently leads a hypothetical Democratic primary field with 31% support among likely voters, according to an October University of Houston–Texas Southern University poll.

State Rep. James Talarico and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke each garnered 25% in the same poll, while former Rep. Colin Allred — who ran unsuccessfully against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 — received 13%.

O’Rourke has not yet announced whether he will enter the 2026 race, though he has indicated that he would consider supporting Crockett if she decides to run.

A separate National Republican Senatorial Committee poll conducted in July and first reported by the Daily Caller News Foundation also found Crockett with an early advantage among Democratic primary voters, showing her at 35% support compared to 20% for Allred.

“I think the key to winning Texas isn’t about looking at the current electorate. It’s about expanding the electorate,” Crockett said.

“If we can expand the electorate, then I will strongly be considering hopping in the Senate race.”

Crockett has gained national attention for her combative exchanges with Republican lawmakers and controversial remarks.

In March, she drew backlash after referring to Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, as “Governor Hot Wheels.”

Cillizza’s assessment adds to growing speculation over how the Democratic field will shape up in Texas, where Republicans have maintained control of every statewide office for more than two decades.

The seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn is up for re-election in 2026, and Attorney General Ken Paxton has indicated he is considering entering the GOP primary.

While Crockett’s potential candidacy has energized some Democratic activists, party strategists remain divided on whether her style and political profile can appeal to the moderate and independent voters needed to win a statewide race in Texas.

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