As former Vice President Kamala Harris returns to California amid speculation she may run for governor in 2026, a new poll suggests[1] her homecoming has been met with little more than indifference from much of the state’s political base.
Harris, widely believed to be considering a gubernatorial bid ahead of a possible 2028 presidential campaign, has not officially announced her intentions.
However, early polling data indicates she would enter the race with only modest enthusiasm from voters — and visible hesitation from key political players within her own state.
A recent poll conducted by Politico and the University of California, Berkeley’s Citrin Center surveyed both registered voters and so-called “policy influencers” — a group that includes lawmakers, legislative staff, and subscribers to Politico’s political publications.
The results reveal a notable lack of excitement surrounding a potential Harris candidacy.
Among policy influencers, 36% described their feelings toward a Harris gubernatorial run as “indifferent.”
Another 22% said they would feel “excited,” while 20% responded with “irritated.” Former colleagues within the state’s political sphere say the reaction is not surprising.
“She’s never been that popular in the California political high school,” said Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist based in Los Angeles who has worked for both Democratic and Republican candidates in the state.
Among registered voters, Harris finds more solid footing among Democrats, with about 75% indicating they would be either “joyful” or “mostly excited” at the prospect of her 2026 run.
Oct 29, 2024; Washington, DC, USA; Democratic Presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a campaign speech at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The location is the site where Donald Trump encouraged his supporters to fight like hell on Jan. 6, 2021 before rioters attacked the U.S. Capitol as Congress was convening to certify Joe Biden’s victory.. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
But the numbers drop sharply outside the party’s base.
Independent voters showed notable skepticism, with 26% saying they would feel “irritated” by Harris entering the race and another 21% selecting “hopeless” to describe their reaction.
Republicans expressed even stronger disapproval. Combined, the bloc of independents and Republicans — who make up nearly half of California’s electorate — may represent a significant obstacle should Harris move forward with her campaign.
Two in 10 registered California voters identify as independents, and one in four align with the Republican Party.
By contrast, Democrats now make up less than 50% of all registered voters in the state.
Harris has reportedly told allies that she plans to decide by the end of summer whether she will formally launch a campaign to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom, whose term ends in 2026.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks to media Thursday, September 23, 2021 in Sequoia National Park before signing a $15 billion climate package into law that will help bolster the state’s response to climate change. Drought Wild Fire Prevention
Other Democrats, including current Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis — a longtime ally of Harris — are reportedly keeping their options open.
Kounalakis has discussed alternative plans with supporters should Harris choose not to enter the race.
Murphy, who has advised billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso as he considers his own run for governor, said the polling data exposes political vulnerability for Harris despite her national profile.
“If I were a rival Democrat, I look at those numbers, and I would say she’ll start in front, but she’s vulnerable to a campaign,” Murphy said. “So there’s plenty of time to move.”
With California set to hold its first open governor’s race in eight years, political watchers are closely tracking whether Harris can translate national name recognition into sustained in-state momentum — or whether other contenders will seize the opportunity to challenge her from within the Democratic field.
