In a recent Fox News segment, Jonathan Turley, a professor at George Washington University Law School, indicated a steadier conservative future for the United States Supreme Court under the newly re-elected President Donald Trump.
Following the president’s victory, which was confirmed early Wednesday as he surpassed the 270 electoral vote threshold, surpassing Kamala Harris, Turley pointed to the impact this result would likely have on the nation’s highest court.
With Trump’s re-election, Professor Turley predicts that attempts by Democrats to expand the number of justices on the Supreme Court—often referred to as “court-packing”—will be deferred.
He also suggested that the key decisions aligning with conservative values, which have recently been passed, will be fortified in the coming decade.
Given that the Senate remains under Republican influence and in light of Harris’s unsuccessful presidential bid, Turley foresees challenges for Democrats to hinder the confirmation of Trump’s judicial nominees.
Discussing the near miss of the court to a potential transformation, Turley highlighted, “The Supreme Court dodged a bullet in that you had Democratic senators saying they wanted to pack the court. One of them said that Kamala Harris was in support of that plan. That would have really been devastating to the court. But now, you also have a little more breathing room. For justices like Clarence Thomas, who is getting older, and maybe Samuel Alito, they have a safe harbor period in which they can get a replacement who will be in their jurisprudential views.”
He speculated on possible retirements and subsequent appointments, saying, “My guess is one or both of them could very well use that. This is a margin that would guarantee that type of transition.”
Turley elaborated on the potential long-term effects of the Supreme Court maintaining its conservative majority.
He observed, “The other big change, of course, is that many of the things they have done over the last few years are now going to be cemented. The issue of abortion will remain with the states. Gun rights will remain robustly defended. So will religious freedom cases. So you’re not going to have a change for at least a decade or so, very likely, in the makeup of the court as being more conservative.”
He referred to the series of influential court decisions in 2022 that have galvanized conservative support, such as upholding a Mississippi law that restricted abortions after 15 weeks, overturning New York’s strict concealed carry requirements, and curbing the authority of the Environmental Protection Agency regarding greenhouse gas regulations.
These controversial rulings had fueled calls among liberals and some Democratic legislators for court expansion, supported by the majority of Democratic voters at that time.
Turley also expressed his take on the credibility of the Supreme Court despite these tension-filled times. “One of the things I say to members of Congress who want to pack the court, is that your institution is about as popular as Ebola, and so saying that, ‘my gosh, the court has lost some of that support,’ the court is still ranked up there with one of the more popular institutions, and so I think these justices want to return to normalcy. They really did not want to get involved in this election. You could see that in the decisions they were making. They wanted that cup to pass from their lips. I think they will be very happy with this.”
Furthermore, in a wry observation of the uneventful election night from a legal standpoint, Turley quipped, “The terrible thing is that a stable democracy broke out last night, so legal analysts were barely seen, and that’s a very sad thing. But the good thing is we didn’t have legal problems. If you see me, it is like seeing your cardiologist.”
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