Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election, flipping the state and gaining its 19 electoral votes.
The victory marked a pivotal moment in Trump’s path to securing the White House, as Pennsylvania is traditionally one of the most influential battleground states in presidential races.
Both Trump and Kamala Harris focused heavily on Pennsylvania in the final weeks of the campaign.
Pennsylvania’s diverse voter base and history as a swing state attracted significant attention and resources from both sides, with each candidate making multiple stops in critical regions.
Trump’s outreach emphasized rural and suburban areas, which ultimately helped him overcome Harris’s strong support in the state’s urban centers, particularly Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Trump’s strategy in Pennsylvania centered on appealing to voters in smaller towns and suburbs, where he emphasized issues like economic growth, energy independence, and border security.
His campaign tailored its message to resonate with Pennsylvania’s blue-collar communities and suburban families, contrasting his policy positions with those of Harris.
Meanwhile, Harris aimed to energize voters in the state’s larger cities, relying on high voter turnout in Democratic strongholds to counter Trump’s rural support.
Here’s what the data said prior to the election:
According to U.S. News & World Report’s reporting [1] on Pennsylvania:
Mail Ballots Returned as of Nov. 5: 1,786,931
In-Person Early Votes: N/A
Total Early Votes: 1,786,931“Pennsylvania does not offer in-person early voting as commonly understood, but does allow voters to request, receive, complete and submit a mail-in ballot all in one visit. All registered voters in the Keystone State can vote by mail – with no excuse required – as long as they applied for a ballot by Oct. 29.
Total early voter participation in the Keystone State was close to reaching 2 million. As of Nov. 5, close to 56% of ballots returned came from registered Democrats, according to the Election Lab.” – U.S. News & World Report
In the final 2024 RealClear Polling Average, Donald Trump was ahead by 0.4 in Pennsylvania.
Below, you can see how the RealClear Polling average for Pennsylvania was trending in the months leading up to the election.
In 2020’s final results, Joe Biden edged Donald Trump out, 50.0% to 48.8%. In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton 48.2% to 47.5%.
Polymarket betting odds in Pennsylvania (as of 2:27 PM EST) had Republicans up over Democrats 59% to 42%:
Polymarket 2024 National Election Forecast:
The moment of truth…
🟥 Trump • 61.8% chance
🟦 Harris • 38.2% chanceElection day. pic.twitter.com/7xzD5rNkvb [2]
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024 [3]