A recent Cygnal survey indicates a potential path to victory for former President Donald Trump in Virginia, driven by support from non-college-educated voters.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, left, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin applauded Gold Star Families during the third day of the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum. The third day of the RNC focused on foreign policy and threats.

The polling, shared with Washington Secrets, shows Trump gaining traction in a state that has not favored a Republican presidential candidate in two decades.

The survey highlights Trump’s increasing appeal among non-college-educated voters, a demographic seen as essential to securing a win in Virginia.

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At the same time, the survey found that Virginia voters have a positive outlook on the state’s direction under Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, with 55% believing the state is on the right track and over 52% approving of Youngkin’s leadership.

However, Kamala Harris also has notable advantages in the state, especially with college-educated voters, where she is performing better than Joe Biden did in 2020. Harris currently leads Trump by seven points, 50% to 43%, according to the Cygnal poll.

Trump rallied support in Virginia on Saturday with a visit to Salem, a city in southern Virginia located along Interstate 81 and near Virginia Tech, west of Roanoke.

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His visit comes amid indications that he is making gains among non-college-educated voters, a key demographic shift noted by Cygnal pollster and political strategy director Mitch Brown. “Trump continues to gain ground among non-college-educated voters, whereas Harris is performing on par with Clinton and Biden’s numbers from 2016 and 2020,” Brown said.

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Despite Harris’s statewide lead, Virginia’s GOP leaders are seeing momentum heading into Election Day.

Brown noted, “Combine Trump’s gains and Harris’s flatlines with the fact that 55% of Virginia voters think the Commonwealth is headed in the right direction and over 52% approve of the job Governor Youngkin is doing means the momentum is with Republicans with just days to go to Election Day.”

A separate Roanoke College poll released Friday shows a wider margin, with Trump trailing Harris by ten points, 51% to 41%.

The Cygnal poll also brings positive news for Governor Youngkin, who holds a favorable rating of 52% compared to a 40% unfavorable rating.

The governor’s popularity may benefit other Republican candidates as well, including Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, who is positioned strongly to secure the GOP nomination for governor in 2025, according to the survey.

The upcoming election in Virginia is anticipated to be closely watched as both parties work to engage key voter demographics in a state that could see a shift after years of Democratic victories at the presidential level.