In a final swing state victory, President-elect Donald Trump has won Arizona, marking a return to the Grand Canyon State after his 2020 loss to Joe Biden.

This achievement caps off a swing-state sweep for Trump in the 2024 election, a feat no Republican candidate has completed in the past two decades.

🚨 #BREAKING: President Trump has WON ARIZONA, per Decision Desk

That brings him to 312 electoral votes

WE MADE THIS TOO BIG TO RIG! WELL DONE, PATRIOTS! 🇺🇸

HUGE shoutout to @charliekirk11, @tylerbowyer, and @TPAction_ for making this happen! pic.twitter.com/h45Tgq6I7H

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) November 7, 2024

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With 75% of votes counted, Trump leads Kamala Harris by a margin of 52.3% to 46.8%, according to Decision Desk HQ.

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Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, added to Trump’s earlier win in Nevada and its six electoral votes, provided an Electoral College boost for the Republican candidate.

Trump and Harris made their final campaign appearances in Arizona on Halloween, each appealing to voters with starkly different visions for the future.

At the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Trump promised a “very large deportation” effort, a stance consistent with his previous term’s approach to immigration. “We defeated ISIS, we had no wars. We had the best economy in the history of our country,” Trump told supporters.

In Phoenix, Harris took a different tone, calling on Arizonans to “turn the page on Donald Trump.”

She assured voters she was focused on progress, not partisan conflict. “I tell you I am not looking to score political points. I am looking to make progress… Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy,” she said.

The issue of border security has been central to the campaigns in Arizona, a state impacted by rising numbers of migrant encounters and an increase in fentanyl and drug trafficking.

Throughout the season, both candidates used the border as a focal point in their Arizona events.

Trump advocated for mass deportations, while Harris referenced a recent congressional border bill that had stalled earlier in the year.

Both candidates also visited Arizona’s southern border as part of their campaign efforts.

In a notable visit to Douglas on September 27, Harris responded to criticism over her role in border policy under the Biden-Harris administration, stating, “I will do more to secure our border, to reduce illegal border crossings.” She further emphasized that anyone crossing illegally would face removal and a five-year ban on reentry.

Economic concerns also weighed heavily on voters in Arizona.

Inflation rates had previously peaked at 13.3% in 2022, placing financial strain on residents.

Despite economic hardships, Democrats emphasized Arizona’s growth and new economic opportunities, such as the CHIPS and Science Act, which supports the state’s semiconductor industry.

Abortion rights also emerged as a critical issue in the Arizona race, with a state-level proposition on the ballot to recognize abortion as a “fundamental right.” Democrats focused on this topic to rally support, appealing to voters who prioritize reproductive rights.

Though polling had shown Arizona to be a tight contest, Trump managed to gain a slight advantage leading up to the election, ultimately securing a major win in the state.

Here’s what the data said prior to the election:

According to U.S. News & World Report’s reporting on Arizona:

Mail Ballots Returned as of Nov. 3: 2,338,279
In-Person Early Votes: N/A
Total Early Votes: 2,338,279

“Arizona’s numbers did not include in-person early votes cast, according to the university’s tracking. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said in a statement on the first day of early voting that the option overall is “safe and secure.”
As of mid-Tuesday, more registered Republicans (40.8%) than Democrats (32.4%) had returned mail ballots. As of Nov. 5, Arizona was the swing state where Trump was polling strongest on average, per The New York Times.” – U.S. News & World Report

In the final 2024 RealClear Polling Average, Donald Trump was ahead by 2.8 in Arizona.

Below, you can see how the RealClear Polling average for Arizona was trending in the months leading up to the election.

In 2020’s final results, Joe Biden edged Donald Trump out, 49.4% to 49.1%. In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton 48.1% to 44.6%.

Polymarket betting odds in Georgia (as of 2:43 PM EST) had Donald Trump up over Kamala Harris 79% to 23%:

Polymarket 2024 National Election Forecast:

The moment of truth…

🟥 Trump • 61.8% chance
🟦 Harris • 38.2% chance

Election day. pic.twitter.com/7xzD5rNkvb

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024