In the early hours of Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ projected a win for President-Elect Donald Trump in Nevada, securing the state’s six electoral votes.

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This victory brought Trump’s total to 286 electoral votes, well above the 270 required to claim the White House in the 2024 presidential race against Kamala Harris.

Decision Desk HQ Screenshot

The New York Times reported that with over 80% of the ballots counted, Trump led with 52% of the vote, while Harris trailed at 49%.

This Nevada win adds another swing state to Trump’s list of 2024 victories, signaling a return to Republican support in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent years.

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Jon Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent and a respected political analyst in the state, acknowledged Trump’s lead in Nevada. “It’s over for Harris in NV,” Ralston wrote, reflecting on the shift in voter sentiment.

Ralston noted the unexpected results in Clark County, Nevada’s most populous region, which includes Las Vegas. “What Trump did was remarkable… He played her to a draw in Clark with 900K votes counted,” he posted, adding that independent voters in the state did not align with previous projections.

Nevada’s call for Trump came after several networks, including Fox News, declared him the overall winner of the 2024 election.

Trump then delivered his victory speech, celebrating a return to the White House after securing crucial battleground states, including Nevada.

Trump’s campaign focused heavily on Nevada throughout the election, emphasizing economic policies, border security, and energy independence, all of which resonated strongly with Nevada voters.

Harris, meanwhile, campaigned in the state to bolster her support among young voters, unions, and Nevada’s significant Hispanic community, aiming to maintain Democratic influence in the state.

However, Trump’s message appeared to connect with a wide range of voters, including independents, who proved crucial in this year’s contest.

Nevada, with its six electoral votes, is often viewed as a critical state in close elections.

Although it leaned Democratic in the 2016 and 2020 elections, this year’s results show a shift, as Trump captured enough support to edge out Harris.

Political analysts attribute this shift to increased Republican turnout and Trump’s ability to draw support among working-class and independent voters.

Trump’s projected win in Nevada adds momentum to his electoral victory, reaffirming his path to the White House.

As Nevada’s votes are finalized and certified, this win contributes to a broader Republican success in swing states that were key to the 2024 election.

With Nevada officially in his column, Trump’s victory solidifies his comeback to the presidency, with strong showings in states that were once battlegrounds for both parties.

This outcome marks a significant milestone in Trump’s political career and reflects changing voter dynamics in traditionally Democratic regions.

Here’s what the data said prior to the election:

According to U.S. News & World Report’s reporting on Nevada:

Mail Ballots Returned as of Nov. 4: 556,062
In-Person Early Votes: 543,271
Total Early Votes: 1,099,333

“Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar noted his state’s status as a “purple” battleground as well as the benefits of early voting on the first day of the window. Resources for voters included an interactive polling place map and extended Department of Motor Vehicles hours for same-day voting registration purposes.

Nevada is one of eight states where elections can be conducted completely by mail, though in-person voting is permitted both early and on Election Day. Just over half of the total early votes came from mail ballots, according to the university. A higher share of registered Republicans (37.5%) than Democrats (33.7%) had cast their vote as of Nov. 4.” – U.S. News & World Report

In the final 2024 RealClear Polling Average, Donald Trump was ahead by 0.6 in Nevada.

RealClear Polling Screenshot

Below, you can see how the RealClear Polling average for Nevada was trending in the months leading up to the election.

RealClear Polling Screenshot

In 2020’s final results, Joe Biden edged Donald Trump out, 50.1% to 47.7%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump 47.9% to 45.5%.

RealClear Polling Screenshot

Polymarket betting odds in Georgia (as of 2:43 PM EST) had Donald Trump up over Kamala Harris 56% to 45%:

Who will win Nevada? – Polymarket Screenshot

Polymarket 2024 National Election Forecast: