CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten raised concerns [1] Monday over Kamala Harris’ polling averages in critical battleground states, noting they are trailing significantly compared to Democratic candidates in previous election cycles.
During an appearance on “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” Enten highlighted Harris’ slipping support in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, three states that have played decisive roles in past presidential elections.
Enten reported that Harris’ leads in those three states have narrowed to just a single percentage point as of October, down from a 2-point advantage in September.
These numbers stand in stark contrast to the stronger leads held by both Joe Biden and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at the same point in previous elections.
On October 14 of both 2016 and 2020, Biden and Clinton were each leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by an average of 8 points, according to Enten.
“I have never seen such consistently tight polling such as this across the battleground states in all the time I have been looking and covering politics,” Enten said during the segment. He warned that these slim leads are causing significant concern within the Democratic Party. “It looks like Harris is slightly ahead, though well within the margin of error. But compared to where we were 4 years ago and 8 years ago, at this point Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, an average across all three,” Enten explained, emphasizing the difference from past Democratic performances.
Enten went on to reference how the 2020 election played out, reminding viewers that even though Biden was polling ahead by 8 points at this stage in the race, he ultimately won these states by much smaller margins.
Hillary Clinton, despite holding a similar 8-point lead in 2016, lost all three states to Donald Trump.
“Harris is up by 1 point across the three states, but Biden was up by 8, and Clinton was up by 8. I don’t have to tell you that Hillary Clinton lost all three of these states. Joe Biden barely won all three of these states,” Enten said, underscoring the challenges Democrats face.
He added, “Democrats have to ask themselves at this particular point, can Harris actually hold on given that Joe Biden barely did, and Hillary Clinton did not?”
Polling data has shown a widening gap between the numbers and actual results on election day in these critical states.
In Wisconsin, for example, a FiveThirtyEight poll in November 2020 showed Biden leading Trump by 8.4 points, but he only narrowly won the state by a margin of 49.6% to 48.9%.
Similarly, in Michigan, polls indicated Biden had a near 8-point lead, but he ultimately won by just 3 points.
In Pennsylvania, Biden won with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48.8%, despite polling showing him ahead by nearly 5 points.
Enten also pointed to a troubling scenario for Democrats. According to his analysis, if Trump manages to outperform in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan by even 1 point over his previous performance, it could result in him securing a commanding 312 electoral votes.
As Harris continues to campaign, the Democratic Party will be closely monitoring these polling numbers in the Great Lakes region.
The results in these key battleground states are likely to be crucial in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.