Concerns have been raised by Democrat strategists and members of the mainstream media concerning [1] the waning support among black and Hispanic/Latino voters.
The trend, which has been observed over the last few years, is notable for its gradual nature.
BREAKING: Kamala Harris is performing horribly among Hispanics compared to prior elections, new polling shows. pic.twitter.com/CIaPgRNFRF [2]
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) September 29, 2024 [3]
At the center of this shift is former President Donald Trump, who has managed to gain traction with these demographic groups.
The most evident changes have been seen not only in presidential elections but also in Congressional elections, with instances in the 2020 and 2022 races across Texas, Florida, and New Mexico.
The reaction to these shifting voting patterns has been characterized by consternation among the Democratic establishment.
Some have even resorted to condescending explanations for the trend, suggesting that these voters are simply being misled.
Amid various interpretations regarding the drivers behind these electoral fluctuations, the data remains clear.
2016 – Clinton +50
2020 – Biden +36
2024 – Harris +14 https://t.co/ZEWA3OZ3Dw [4]— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 29, 2024 [5]
With another election looming in November, a fresh wave of concern has gripped Democratic circles, particularly in light of a new NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
The findings indicate a further decline in support for Democrats within the Hispanic community.
The aforementioned poll highlights a sinking edge for Democratic candidates amongst Latino voters – hitting its nadir in four presidential cycles.
The spotlight now shines on the Democratic presidential candidate, revealing a slip in backing from a key voter segment.
The present climate within the Latino community seems to weigh heavily on economic concerns and the soaring cost of living, areas where this demographic now appears to favor Trump over the current Democratic leadership.
Despite this trend, a majority still prefer Democratic leadership when judging factors such as temperament and perceived competency.
The NBC News merged polling data puts this into historical perspective, showing that while Democratic candidates in previous elections enjoyed substantial leads among Latino voters in 2012 (39 points), 2016 (50 points), and 2020 (36 points), the current lead stands markedly lower.
NBC News’ Steve Kornacki delved into the intricacies of these figures, offering a detailed analysis during a televised segment.
NBC: Trump has made a 19-point gain with Latino voters since 2020.
pic.twitter.com/Up3S3lH4qn [6]
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 29, 2024 [7]
An important insight from this data suggests that even a marginal shift of just one or two percentage points among minority voters in key battleground states could have substantial electoral ramifications.
Each election cycle has seen an increase in Latino voter turnout, and a corresponding uptick in their support for Republican candidates.
The fact that Democrats are now having to fight harder than ever for what was once considered a steadfast voting bloc underscores several critical points.
NBC POLL: MASSIVE shift toward the GOP with Latino voters. pic.twitter.com/QO0R4wqGEp [8]
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 29, 2024 [9]
It suggests a growing disenchantment with ‘woke’ politics among these voters, and signals that the determined efforts by Republicans might be gaining ground.
What remains to be seen is whether these indicators will translate into meaningful Republican gains come the November elections.