A recent poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center has revealed that Joe Biden is trailing behind former President Donald Trump among registered voters in New Hampshire. The poll, which surveyed over 1,700 registered voters in the immediate aftermath of the presidential debate, indicated that 44% of respondents support Trump, compared to 42% who favor Biden. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered 4% of the intended votes.
The poll’s margin of sampling error is reported to be plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, solidifying the competitive nature of New Hampshire in the upcoming presidential election. Neil Levesque, representative of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, stated, “I think it’s now conclusive that New Hampshire is really a competitive state in the presidential election.”
The poll marks a significant shift since the previous Saint Anselm College poll in December, which had shown Biden leading by 10 percentage points. Out of those who were aware of the debate, 54% believed Trump emerged as the winner, while only 6% thought Biden prevailed. Another 39% stated that there was no clear winner. However, despite the debate’s impact, 81% of viewers claimed that it would not affect their vote in November.
New polling shows President Trump leading Biden in New Hampshire. This is not shocking, considering Trump drew a massive New Hampshire crowd in the middle of winter. Has Biden even held a rally in New Hampshire?
pic.twitter.com/zBPN0dJEOo [1]— Charles R Downs (@TheCharlesDowns) July 2, 2024 [2]
Levesque acknowledged the partisan nature of voters, explaining, “People are very partisan…they say, ‘Well, I watched the debate, but it doesn’t affect how I’m going to vote.’ But certainly, events like a presidential debate like we saw last week are pivot points in politics, and at this point, with the amount of change we’ve seen with the presidential contest, certainly the debate had an effect.”
Despite the rough patch for Biden highlighted by this poll, Levesque noted that the presidential nominee still maintains a relatively strong grip on most Democratic voters. He explained, “Sixty-seven percent of people who describe themselves as very liberal are for him…\[even] if they’re holding their nose when they do it.”
A Republican hasn’t won New Hampshire
The results of this poll further emphasize the fierce competition unfolding in New Hampshire, setting the stage for a pivotal battleground in the race for the White House.